Why a business development forecast is needed
He began to do business at the university. The scholarship was not enough, so I was spinning to earn at least some money. I have never worked for an uncle and am proud of it. I achieved everything myself. Over 20 years, much has been achieved. At first, the business developed well. He earned money, resolved his questions. Everything went perfectly, so I didn’t even think about starting another business.
But lately there is a sense of doom. It seems that a little more and the business will have to close. I do not know what to do. If I close my business, I’ll actually be left without income. Is it possible to somehow determine, at least in general terms, what to expect from the business in the future? Is it possible to build a forecast for business development at least 5-10 years in advance? Can I find out how much is left for my business?
Business development forecast is the foundation
Business development forecast – it is like the foundation of a home. It is customary to start any business with it. It is not only possible, but also necessary to build. Many companies, especially western ones, are actively engaged in forecasting, and each year, because they understand that the situation on the market is dynamic, not static and will end sooner or later.
When it’s about the situation ends and when it’s better to “get up and leave the game table” it is better to know in advance. In our culture, it is customary to live one day and there are many sayings in this regard: “there will be a day – there will be food”, “questions must be resolved as they arise” and so on. Therefore, no one builds forecasts especially, and if he builds, then purely formally, if only they were well, or if it is necessary to report to someone.
Most business problems are almost always related to the fact that a business development forecast was not carried out.
The result in 99% of cases is the corresponding – “and things are still there.” However, we are also approaching the moment when forecasting becomes relevant with us. This is due to the fact that the rate of change is increasing and it is necessary to adapt to this. Most business problems are almost always due to the fact that a business development forecast was not made.
Business development forecast is useful
There are many examples, only I see dozens of them. For example, a sick new house was built opposite me. On the ground floor of this house are commercial premises. The total number of premises is about 20. For about half of them, the owners have been looking for tenants for several years and cannot find them. Of course, money was invested in the premises, and quite serious ones, which actually turned out to be frozen.
I am very interested in watching the change of signage
People who paid money for them expected to have a good income from their rental, but in fact they have only costs. Tenants were found for the remaining premises, but they are constantly changing. I am very interested in watching the change of signage. They will open a beer store, then a grocery store, then a children’s store, then a candle shop, then a travel company, then a hairdresser, or a sewing workshop.
Some work a week, some six months, but in the end they still close, and received serious losses. My trained eye immediately determines who can hold on and who will close very soon. If they had made a forecast of business development in advance, they would have understood that their business in the format in which it exists would not last long, and if they would have understood why.
Business Development Forecast Needed
One of the shops was somehow on the verge of closing. It so happened that I went into it and gave some recommendations. Surprisingly, they listened to them and did what I said. As a result, the business only through these recommendations lasted another year. However, in the end, it closed anyway, because nothing was done after these recommendations, and, of course, they eventually exhausted their capabilities.
Business development forecast can be of different types
The business development forecast is of various types. It can be predicted whether the business will go at all. You can predict how long the business will remain relevant and generate revenue. You can predict the scale of business development. Why is all this possible? That’s because business is basically an idea. If the business is built correctly, if it corresponds to the idea that underlies it, then it will 100% go.
While the idea that underlies the business is relevant, it goes uphill. But over time, any idea loses relevance; accordingly, the business that is built on its basis ends. The relevance of the idea decreases gradually, which allows us to predict the lifetime of the business. So if you build a forecast for business development, with a high degree of probability you can find out whether it will go, how long it will last and to what level it will grow.
Author of the consultation: Pavel Bernovich
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